Jeffery Said:

What should I do for my econ thesis?

We Answered:

I would go with the first idea for the reason that testing for affects of policies can be rather straightforward. First of all, I would suggest that you focus on the changes seen in the agricultural sector of the economy. Once you collect and analyze this data, here is what you need to do:

1) Create a forecasting model with the dependent variable as some measure of economic output of the agricultural sector. Seeing as this data set is a time series, it is likely that you will easily be able to forecast your dependent variable using an ARMA(p,q) model. One thing you need to be sure to look for are unit roots though I doubt any will be present in agricultural data (just something you want to look for regardless).

2) Once you have a model you feel sufficiently forecasts the output (obviously try to minimize the Akaike information and Schwarz criteria), you can test for structural breaks in the model. Testing for structural breaks at each and every data point for which the test can be run will tell you if there were any points in time when either the values of the intercept or slope coefficients in your forecasting model changed.

If there is a structural break around the time at which the buyout occurred, you can then discuss whether the structural break is the result of the buyout or some other change in policy, the economy, or any other variable not captured in the forecasting model.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Dan

Claude Said:

How to write a good research proposal ?

We Answered:

http://phdinfo.blogspot.com/2008/02/how-…
http://casestudiesinfo.blogspot.com/

Brandy Said:

How to write a good research proposal ?

We Answered:

http://phdinfo.blogspot.com/2008/02/how-…
http://casestudiesinfo.blogspot.com/